Fed: Howard gets first hand view of the perils of war

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Fed: Howard gets first hand view of the perils of war

By James Grubel, Chief Political Correspondent

LONDON, Feb 14 AAP - During meetings at the White House and Downing Street in the pastweek, John Howard received more than just a personal briefing on the possibility of warwith Iraq.

The prime minister also had a close up view of the political ramifications of his standagainst Saddam Hussein.

Over dinner with United States President George W Bush, Mr Howard found the discussionturned to what he described as comparative domestic politics.

"And obviously we shared a few partisan reminiscences as you would expect over dinnerin relation to world politics," Mr Howard said.

That is political code for the widespread lack of public support for military strikes on Iraq.

It was a discussion that would have rammed home the long-term political dangers forMr Howard due to his close support for both the US and British positions on Iraq.

In the US, latest polls suggest Mr Bush is struggling to retain the support of theAmerican public for his plans to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iraq.

That could be partly responsible for the change in Mr Bush's rhetoric, with the USnow talking up the role of the United Nations Security Council and playing down talk ofunilateral military action.

In Australia, the latest Newspoll said only 18 per cent would support military actionwithout UN approval, with an overwhelming 76 per cent against.

Those numbers turn to 67 per cent support for war if it is endorsed by the UN.

In Britain, Mr Howard arrived to the nation's highest security alert since September11, with more than 1,500 armed troops, some in tanks, patrolling London's Heathrow Airport.

The same day, London's Times newspaper published a poll which found Prime MinisterTony Blair's stocks had plummeted as the talk of war intensified.

The poll said support for British Labour was at an all-time low of 35 per cent - almostlevel pegging with the Conservatives - with women particularly turning away from Mr Blair.

Perhaps more importantly, it found nine out of 10 people believed UN weapons inspectorsshould be given more time.

The poll would have been sobering news for Mr Howard, as Britain has exactly the samepolicy towards Iraq as Australia - troops are committed to the pre-deployment but no decisionhas yet been made to commit to a war.

Given the public mood, it was little wonder that Mr Howard was warmly welcomed at DowningStreet and on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington.

At his news conference with Mr Howard, Mr Bush had a message for Australians who remainunconvinced about the need for military strikes against Iraq.

"My personal message is that I want to keep the peace and make the world more peaceful,"

Mr Bush said.

"I understand why people don't like to commit to the military action. I can understand that.

"I know people would like to avoid armed conflict. And so would I.

"But the risks of doing nothing far outweigh the risks off whatever it takes to disarmSaddam Hussein."

For Mr Howard, perhaps the most comforting words about the political dangers of warcame from United States Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

During a joint news conference with Mr Howard at the Pentagon, Mr Rumsfeld also hada message for his guest about the polls.

"I was musing earlier about public opinion polls," Mr Rumsfeld said.

"You know, there are several ways you can cast questions to get answers.

"One way is to say, will this country agree to join the United States without a UNresolution and join the United States in unilateral action, or would you prefer a secondresolution?

"And of course the other way is to say, would you prefer to have Iraq keep its weaponsoff mass destruction or would you prefer to join a large coalition of the willing, withor without a resolution?

"And that gets quite a different response."

In the meantime, Mr Howard has now made it clear he will shelve plans to consider hisfuture until the Iraqi crisis is over.

Mr Howard said Iraq was the only thing on his mind at present and he would not be thinkingof his retirement plans until the matter was resolved.

"Any suggestion of walking away from my responsibilities during a time like this wouldbe quite out of the question," he said.

But if Australia does join a war and the UN remains divided, angry voters might leaveMr Howard with no choice in the matter.

AAP jg/hu/

KEYWORD: NEWSCOPE FEDERAL